Today is November 6, 2018, midterm election day. It’s 12:52 pm Pacific Time, and 3:52 pm Eastern Time. Yes, I’m going to do THAT. I’m going out on the proverbial limb to predict that Republicans will hold the House, and gain seats in the Senate. The latter is not so hard to predict given that nearly all the media are predicting the same thing. The former, a little more tricky. Here’s why I think Republicans will hold the House.
First, this smells nearly exactly like election night 2016. For months, the mainstream media and their pollster counterparts, like braintrust Nate Silver, predicted a Hillary Clinton blowout. Silver said, even into the evening that Hillary had an 86% chance of winning the Presidency. Likewise, the mainstream media has been predicting for the last six months that the democrats will take back the House as a referendum on President Trump. To believe that, one has to believe that (a) there is more energy on the left than the right, (b) the left’s energy will translate to Democrats going to vote, (c) more people hate Donald Trump than those who like and support him, and (d) people will vote against their interests, namely that they will ignore the booming economy, the job numbers, and how it’s affecting their own personal lives. I don’t believe for an instant that any of these things will hold true.
Secondarily, to their detriment, Democrat candidates and their slavish followers actually believe the media and pollsters who, rather than reporting the facts, have been trying to sway the narrative. Hillary believed the polls and look where that got her. She became complacent and never campaigned in states she felt were clearly in her column. Similarly, I believe many Democrat voters feel this is “in the bag” for their candidates. So, rather than suppressing Republican votes, it may have the opposite effect and cause Democrats to stay home today.
In addition, two completely new factions have developed in recent months that benefit Republicans. One is the Walk Away movement where a segment of disenfranchised Democrats are walking away from their party and embracing Trump and the Republican party. Another is the stunning news that 40% of blacks have a favorable view of the President and his policies. Many of these African Americans voted for Obama ten years ago, but became bitterly disappointed and disillusioned with him. He did literally nothing for the African American community regarding wages and jobs. The only thing he did was sow the seeds of discontent between the races. Anger is not a sustainable strategy, nor will it get the Democrats the votes they desperately need to take over the House. Jobs and higher wages for African Americans and Hispanics is a strategy for holding the House, and it’s a Republican strategy.
Further, there are several items motivating Republicans. The despicable treatment of Justice Kavanaugh at the hands of contemptuous, hypocritical Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee is one such motivator. The media and the left are sorely mistaken if they believe Republicans have forgotten that spectacle. Another motivator for the right turns out to be a ploy developed by the Democrats that has blown up in their collective faces: the migrant caravan from Central America. The images of, now up to over 10,000, migrants waving their countries’ flags and burning ours, overrunning the Mexican border, throwing rocks at the Mexican police, and caught on camera making demands of the US government have been a godsend for Republicans. As they say, a picture is worth a thousand words, and these pictures aren’t pretty.
Finally, leftists tend to live in metropolitan areas like Los Angeles, Portland, Seattle, and New York. Most who live in big cities rely on government to meet their needs. Very few have ever grown their own food, hunted for game, or chopped wood to keep the wood stove going. They are surrounded by like-minded people who cannot imagine doing any of these activities, nor do they know anyone who actually voted for Trump. They live in a bubble comforting themselves with the belief that they are intellectuals and thus deserve to be in power. They also condescendingly believe the only individuals who could have voted for Trump are toothless hayseeds who never graduated from high school. Keep thinking that lefties. There are more of us than you. We love America, we love our flag, we love our culture, we love our traditions, and WE LOVE TRUMP! These things will translate into a bad night for the Dems.
So yep, I’m going out on a limb with this prediction, but the winds seem right for a replay of election night 2016. Who’s with me?